Don Marti
Sun 17 Apr 2005 08:33:51 PM PDT
DRM: does Hollywood really care?
Probably the best-known example of a DRM circumvention was the publication of information on how to descramble CSS-encoded DVDs. On November 1, 1999, Wired reported, "The worst fear of movie studios has been realized: DVD movie encryption has been broken."
Did this worst fear actually have any effect on DVD release schedules?
The top grossing movies for 1998, before CSS descrambling became widely known, took about a year to come out in DVD format.
USA theatrical
Title release DVD Days
----------------------------------------------------
Saving Private Ryan 24 Jul 1998 2 Nov 1999 566
Armageddon 1 Jul 1998 5 Jan 1999 176
There's Something 15 Jul 1998 3 Aug 1999 384
About Mary
A Bug's Life 25 Nov 1998 23 Nov 1999 363
The Waterboy 6 Nov 1998 21 Oct 1999 348
----------------------------------------------------
Average 367
But what happened in 2000, when CSS removal was common knowledge, at least if you read certain technical publications? The top five Top grossing movies for 2000 actually came out sooner after theatrical release.
USA theatrical
Title release DVD Days
----------------------------------------------------
How the Grinch 17 Nov 2000 20 Nov 2001 368
Stole Christmas
Cast Away 22 Dec 2000 6 Dec 2001 349
Mission: 24 May 2000 11 Dec 2000 201
Impossible II
Gladiator 5 May 2000 21 Nov 2000 200
What Women Want 15 Dec 2000 8 May 2001 144
----------------------------------------------------
Average 252
2003 is an key year, either the low point if you're worrying about loss of control over customers or a high point if you're a DVD customer. DVD X Copy for Microsoft Windows went on sale December 03, 2002 and wasn't taken off the market until February 20, 2004.
So, is there any difference in DVD release dates between the top grossing movies of 2002, when DVD access was still only for people who know their way around a C compiler, and later? Let's see. Here's 2002:
USA theatrical
Title release DVD Days
----------------------------------------------------
Spider-Man 3 May 2002 1 Nov 2002 182
The Lord of the 18 Dec 2002 26 Aug 2003 250
Rings: The Two Towers
Star Wars: Episode 16 May 2002 12 Nov 2002 180
II Attack of the Clones
Harry Potter and 15 Nov 2002 11 Apr 2003 146
the Chamber of Secrets
My Big Fat Greek 2 Aug 2002 11 Feb 2003 193
Wedding
----------------------------------------------------
Average 190
Now, with that point-and-click circumvention tool available to so many customers, wouldn't the top grossing movies of 2003 stay out of DVD format until the coast was clear? Nope. 2003 showed the quickest turnarounds yet.
USA theatrical
Title release DVD Days
----------------------------------------------------
The Lord of the 17 Dec 2003 25 May 2004 159
Rings: The Return
of the King
Finding Nemo 30 May 2003 4 Nov 2003 158
Pirates of the 9 Jul 2003 2 Dec 2003 146
Caribbean: The Curse
of the Black Pearl
The Matrix Reloaded 15 May 2003 14 Oct 2003 152
Bruce Almighty 23 May 2003 25 Nov 2003 186
----------------------------------------------------
Average 160
There is a possible interpretation that DVDs are coming out earlier in order to compete with infringing copies. But where are the infringing copies coming from? If customer ability to copy DVDs mattered, delaying DVD release would matter. But it doesn't seem to. DRM in media sold to customers is increasingly looking like a noisy, pointless sideshow to a real infringement problem.
For the studios, backing DRM and technology mendates only alienates the technical constituencies that are first of all, sticklers for conventional copyright law, and second, qualified to develop effective policies and technology to enforce it.