[linux-elitists] PengPod engineers for a new project

Raistlin Majere raistlin at majere.net
Wed Sep 4 04:38:37 PDT 2013


You know, I've had a tablet for a while now, as well as a smart phone,
both are wonderful, but when I have to type anything significant, I
still reach for my laptop. My laptop has been running Linux for 17 years
now, but most non tech people I know have tablets, phones and laptops
with Android or Apple on the first two and Windows 7 on the laptop. If
you said the traditional Desktop will disappear, I have no problem with
that statement, but I don't think the laptop is on it's way out. If you
said Windows is on it's way out, I would say that Microsoft is one more
mistake away from that being true as well.

R.M.


On 09/04/2013 05:57 AM, Shlomi Fish wrote:
> Hello David and all,
> 
> On Thu, 08 Aug 2013 10:27:22 +0100
> David Edmondson <dme at dme.org> wrote:
> 
>> On Thu, Aug 08 2013, Jason White wrote:
>>> As to predicting the long term, I suppose it depends on whether you
>>> think what we today call phones and tablets, and the operating systems
>>> running on them, will ultimately displace desktop machines as
>>> traditionally understood. We could be heading into an era of Linux in
>>> the server room, Linux (Android, Firefox OS, Ubuntu Touch, KDE Plasma
>>> or whatever) in the end-user-facing devices, and nothing in between as
>>> the PC legacy slowly disappears. There would be both new challenges
>>> and opportunities for software freedom in that environment.
>>
>> "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of
>> wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it
>> was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the
>> season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of
>> despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were
>> all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way."
>>
>> Linux will win completely and be everywhere, but we will have none of
>> the freedoms that it was intended to allow.
> 
> In addition to what other people said, I'd like to note that there is a problem
> with predicting such things with absolute certainty: they don't always come
> true. Some predictions I recall that didn't come true:
> 
> 1. In the turn of the 1990s the astrological section of one of the Israeli
> newspapers, said that by the year 2000 parts of North America and Scandinavia
> will disappear. It didn't happen.
> 
> 2. Before the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War , an Israeli military
> politics expert told the public that the Iraqis will certainly not fire
> missiles at Israel. After the war (when many missiles were fired onto Israel),
> the other experts boycotted him, not because he made a false prediction (which
> is human), but because he proclaimed it would be absolutely certain that it will
> happen.
> 
> 3. Here are some predictions from Earth Day 1970 that didn't materialise:
> 
> http://www.ihatethemedia.com/earth-day-predictions-of-1970-the-reason-you-should-not-believe-earth-day-predictions-of-2009
> 
> 4. In http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/APIWar.html , it is mentioned that:
> 
> ««
> In the early 90s everyone thought IBM was completely over: mainframes were
> history! Back then, Robert X. Cringely predicted that the era of the mainframe
> would end on January 1, 2000 when all the applications written in COBOL would
> seize up, and rather than fix those applications, for which, allegedly, the
> source code had long since been lost, everybody would rewrite those
> applications for client-server platforms.
> »»
> 
> This prediction didn't come true either.
> 
> 5. I recall that someone on an Israeli
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_and_open-source_software once claimed that
> several years from then (I think it was 5 years), proprietary software will
> become extinct, and I recall it was said over 5 years ago.
> 
> ----------------
> 
> So be careful when making such predictions and presenting them as a
> certain-to-happen fact, because you may be proven wrong. As someone noted
> on a chat I had on IRC, people predicted that certain technologies will kill
> the PC several times before, and it didn't happen.
> 
> In one essay that an Israeli open source enthusiast wrote he made the claim
> that there were only 3 or 4 *profitable* companies who developed and sold
> non-open-source software. In one comment to the essay on
> http://www.whatsup.org.il/ , one commentator gave a list of ten profitable
> vendors of non-open-source software, and there were likely many more at the
> time and still are.
> 
> Regards,
> 
> 	Shlomi Fish
> 


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