[linux-elitists] possible web doodad -- the "SCO's chances calculator"

Brian McGroarty brian@mcgroarty.net
Wed Aug 13 14:43:44 PDT 2003


On Wed, Aug 13, 2003 at 01:35:48PM -0700, Don Marti wrote:
> The collective wisdom of the world's financial markets says that
> SCO has a probability of winning of about 0.037.
> 
> SCO stands to collect $3 billion if it wins its case against IBM.
> As of 20 minutes ago or so, SCO's market cap is about $112.5 million
> greater than its book value.  Do the math.  (I'm ignoring time value
> of money here because I'm assuming that SCO would get interest if
> it won.  I'm also ignoring any possibility for future SCO revenue
> other than the lawsuit.  Anyone have a better model?)

Well, there's more to it than the three billion. If they win the case
against IBM, I expect they've also got a pretty good case against many
other companies, as well as a bit more clout for this whole licensing
ordeal.

Even if SCO did take in that three billion however, I don't know if
I'd expect it to fall into the laps of all the stockholders. Is there
any reason not to think SCO wouldn't simply resume buying up chunks of
other Canopy companies at inflated prices?



More information about the linux-elitists mailing list